Tsunami warning. A black swan from the past
by Jac van de Walle
I stumbled over this information, and I put it together here in a small article.
Confucius, said 2500 years ago: By three methods we can learn: The second is by imitation, which is easiest. Third third by experience, which is the bitterest. The first is by deep thinking, which is noblest. This saying is often modified by people, ventilating it as their own wisdom. (Even including Einstein)
Tsunami is a normal word in historical Indonesian language, that is where the actually comes from. However the learning effect has always been so small, in all other languages there not a word for it, and no information, it was obviously regarded always some bad coincidence, and forgotten for ever after. So then in Japan, in 2011, a Tsunami killed 18700 persons. It was the largest Tsunami ever. But was it really? How can we say, when have nothing better to do, than forget such events?
The 2011 Tsunami was the cause of the meltdown of three reactors of the Fukushima nuclear plant, and the damage was comparable with the Chernobyl disaster. Chances such an event were thought to be so low, the Japanese felt there was no need for precautions against this, not even in the smallest way. When the black swan does not exist, it can not come your way, right?
Donald Rumsfeld once tried to describe the Black Swan situation, but it became hilarious, because it was too difficult for him to put this into words. What he meant to say, you can deal with the known unknowns, but not with the unknown unknowns.
The Black Swan theory says, a flock of white Swans does not know how to react on a black Swan, because black swans do not exist
So how unknown are Tsunamis? The Indonesian language has a word for it, so for the Indonesians, it's a known. The Japanese tried to justify their mistake, by calling it an unknown. But how unknown was it in Japan? You just have to ask yourself, when was the last time it appeared, and how serious was it? Besides, the world is larger than Japan only. When Tsunamis are normal language in Indonesia, how can you be sure this can not happen in Japan?
After the 2011 Tsunami happened, these pictures were published, with several (!) messages from the past, warning for those. The ancient people engraved their message in stones, to warn future generations. I cannot read Japanese, but I can see myself, this is the older kind of characters. (Japanese writing was modernized, and this writing is obvious from before that)
Ancient Tsunami warning. I would say it's clearly visible.
n the North of Japan, in the city of Kesennuma, there are several large stones placed along the road with engravements that are hundreds of years old. It is said to be unknown where the stones are coming from.
It is engraved in the stones:
"Prepare for unexpected Tsunamis. Your life is more important than goods".
In the city of Natori is another such historical stone, in the back yard of a school for very small children, and this area was severely hit. 
This is such a sad story, as some of the children of this school died, and teachers and parents indeed brought the contents of this stone under the attention if the officials already before. They responded, it cannot be verified if this information is true. So they decided to take no action. They were not the only ones. These stones are at more places along the coast, and all officials thought the same.
On another stone is written in ancient Japanese letters:
"Beware! After an earthquake, a Tsunami was here. Dead bodies were high up in the trees"
Let me explain something here in general. When talking about technical issues with Asian engineers, they are extremely open for new ideas, and looking in detail how you are doing things. However, they think very much "opinion" related. They have a tendency to take the avarage of opinions, and regard that a fact. A person who has to make a difficult decision, will ask several people he trusts, and when most give him the same advice, he will probably go that way. It sounds all right, but that way he doesn't always follow the advise from the one who knows best. He will follow the average advise, if this is also the most comfortable one. This can be beneficial in some situations, and not beneficial in other. So an uncomfortable advise, if coming only from one source, has practically no chance in an Asia.
Reality is: The Japanese build six Atomic reactors on a piece of land, with a 300 years old Tsunami warning on it, engraved in stone.
It would have been so easy, to dig in the ground and search for older Tsunami traces. So to check if it is true, what is written in these stones. To find 300 years old traces of a flooding, you do not have to dig very deep. New soil grows on the old with a speed of less than one centimeter per year. So any amateur archeologist will nothing but a spade in his hands, will bring the answer within a week, if the stones hold a real warning, or are just a joke.
So after the Tsunami came again, they know now that old warning was not a joke. Ok, it was somewhere in the year 1700. Last one was in 2011.
Do you know what is the Japanese conclusion from that? It was 300 years ago. So at least for a a long time nothing will happen now. So far for the black swan.
* The black Swan Theory says, only fools make no preparation for events which are 'thought' to be very unlikely. Like no white swan knows how to react to a black swan, which he has never seen before. However things that are unlikely, do not care what you think of them. When they are due to happen, they happen, and it doesn't help when you complain their occurence should not be, because it was so unlikely.
A better compare is a shack of Turkeys, and the farmer feeds them every day. They learn to trust him. Every time he comes in, no bad things happen, and even so he brings foods. Then, at thanksgiving, the farmer comes in like normal, but instead of feeding, he grabs the Turkeys by the neck, and cuts off their heads.
Or an even recent example: The risk of a deadly pandemic flue, was already pointed out by president Bush. President Obama went further. 
He said in 2014: IT WILL COME in 5...15 years. You can look up his speech up in youtube. Just look for 'Obama Pandemic'. He installed a committee for this, called: The White House Pandemic Office. Obama was dead serious about this threat, and he said a working infrastructure has to be installed. So when it happens, we all know what to do. Like where to get immedieately so many hospital beds from, what emergency laws are needed, or how to handle so many dead bodies, in case it happens in the summer. Just prepare, prepare, prepare. So Obama knew what a black swan looks like.
President Trump, not really famous for his wideview jugement about COVID-19, is blaming others. He sees no responsibility with himself. He clearly sais so. Yet, we need to remind, first thing he did after his election, was obsolete the The White House Pandemic Office, without any replacement. He just send them home, and that was it. Saying they were a waste of money.
COVID-19 became Trump's black swan, because he was seriously warned by Obama. Instead of listening to a more experienced president, he fired the Pandemic comittee, with no replacement, as one of his first acts.